San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC prediction

The take

Nashville SC arrive as the slight favorites with a 41 percent win probability, buoyed by an impressive recent run that includes four straight victories. San Jose's form has been more uneven, oscillating between wins and draws over their last five games. The model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, though the 31-28 split between an Earthquakes win and another stalemate suggests genuine uncertainty. Expected goals favor Nashville slightly at 1.42 to 1.2, reflecting their attacking momentum. Home advantage at Avaya Stadium is factored in, but it has not been enough to overturn Nashville's recent superior results in the model's view. Data quality on this fixture is low, so treat these numbers as indicative rather than definitive.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  San Jose have mixed results with two wins and three draws across five games. Nashville have dominated with four consecutive wins and one draw.

• Venue, travel and rest

  San Jose play at home with standard home advantage priced into the model.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 4)

  The last four meetings between these teams have all ended in draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.20 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.42 for Nashville SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 31 for San Jose Earthquakes, 41 for Nashville SC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Jose Earthquakes win band is held at 15 to 51.